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In profit on Horse Racing for 5 of the previous 6 months
WIN @
Karl Burke (SR 13%) has a number of runners entered in this 2yo novice stakes for fillies. The trainer has won the last two runnings of this race. Well backed on debut at Pontefract where she took a fierce hold, ran green and got outpaced but ralllied, not beaten far by a January colt, Franciscos Piece, who won here again at York on Tuesday. That was a promising debut start which this filly (by Invincible Spirit out of a Dark Angel filly) looks likely to progress from. Potential here at 16-1.
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Oisin Murphy (SR 19%) rides Kings Code for David Evans (SR 16%) and the 4yo by 2018 Guineas winner Saxon Warrior brings a lot of good form to the race. Winner of 7 of 21 career starts. Ran at a fairly high level this winter on the AW and held his own in that sphere. Ran 7th of 13 on first start back on turf at Newmarket recently, finishing just off the back heels of Majestic and Theoryofeverything. Handicap mark drops another 2 pounds. Definitely a contender.
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A strong renewal of the 1m6f Yorkshire Cup with five big contenders for honours. Tower Of London’s recent UAE (?) form is high class. Still, I fancy Vauban as the winner here for Willie Mullins. A 6yo now and regularly seen over hurdles where he has run within a few lengths of stablemate and current Champion Hurdler State Man a few times. Former Triumph Hurdle winner. Focused on Flat racing in the last twelve months however. Beat another stablemate Absurde by seven lengths at Royal Ascot before the second went on to win the Ebor. A Group 3 win at Naas followed before he was a beaten favourite for the Melbourne Cup when last seen. Hasn’t really run a bad race in his whole career. This 14 furlongs looks his ideal trip. Coming in for strong market support.
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Henry Oliver (SR 25%) trained 11 year-old is ten pounds below his last winning mark. That win came from out of the blue in March 2023 in the Grade 3 Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury (2m4f). Likes good ground and has won at Aintree (2 miles) in the past off OR139 (OR125 today). 3 wins from 18 starts.
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Empire Steel carries 12 stone in this 3m1f handicap chase at Aintree. This is due to his official top rating, of course, which is deserved and he doesn’t actually have to give too much weight away to ultimately inferior rivals on a form basis. Back to his best when winning at Kelso in February and ran solidly enough in the Class 1 Topham since then. He is a Listed winner with 5 wins from 17 chase starts and has won on good ground in the past. Might be happier back in a more modestly sized field. Definitely up to this level at his best. Ryan Mania (SR 17%) rides for Sandy Thomson (SR 20%).
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Pretty open handicap contest for apprentices. My Birthday Girl is a 4yo filly by Guineas winner Churchill and she’s relatively unexposed after just six starts. Has shown a modicum of ability with some excuses (unable to get a clear run last time). Paddy Harnett rides. Looks a big price for each-way purposes (ran fifth on penultimate start) at 50-1.
Profits calculated to a 10 point stake.
Value Rating is based on comparing the odds of a selection to the theoretical probability of winning based on the percentage of tips for it.