"OLBG v the Bookies" 2008-09 revisited (FUN only!)

eezzee · Posted: Thu Aug 21, 2008 6:31 pm Post subject:

The trouble with using Betfair is that the odds can vary enormously which makes it hard for us to tell if anyone is cheating (not that I think they would). Don't get me wrong I think in the real world Betfair is great, but in terms of fairness perhaps it shouldn't be used in this example. Confused

Plus we are trying to beat the bookies and Betfair isn't technically a bookies so in effect we would be beating each other, although not literally. Laughing

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To Dare is To Do

gecko6 · At Stud Read My Blog! Joined: 20 Oct 2006 Posts: 4164

yep - we should stick to bookmakers as that's the whole point

we arent using exchanges or trading at all so no Betfair pls on this thread Very Happy

good point re villa last wk... moved from evens down to 1.6 or so after the euro exploits and weight of money I presume - that's some shift in price

Murph1984 · Posted: Thu Aug 21, 2008 8:27 pm Post subject:

Ok,i had feared that when i read throygh everyone else and no-one had used Betfair

Will change it to the 1.8 currently on offer

Apologies,i genuinely didnt know,was gonna let it ride but thought better to ask Embarassed

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luck determines the cards,skill determines the chips

thatsa donkey · Classic Winner Joined: 06 Jul 2005 Posts: 850

Hi Guys,

I think that this week I'll take on the Man U bet @ 1.8 VC Bet.

SAF must have given the team a kick up the proverbial after last week, so @ 1.8 this week must surely be a steal. If they want to get back in the title rcae early they need a good result.

Week 2 balance - 175 + 100 weekly top up= £275

Week 2 bet is Man U £100 win @ 1.8 VC Bet

Good Luck this weekend Guys.

Donkey. Fingers Crossed

bigmoose · Posted: Fri Aug 22, 2008 11:13 pm Post subject:

I've been using Oddschecker website for a year or two now, but am starting to get into the habit of using this sites very own Valuechecker and after tonight will probably stick to this one only because.............

Now it could be coincidence but tonight on Oddschecker there's some very dodgy PaddyPower odds up. Admittedly it's probably an error, but PaddyPower also do seem to be the sites main advertiser. I was looking at B'burn Clean Sheet (vs Hull) odds, well i think i was in 'Away Team to Score'. - PaddyPower odds were around 2.40 for Hull NOT to score which i thought nice. So clicked on it and it took me to PaddyPower site showing real odds of Hull not to score at 2.00. Then i looked at Ars AH-1 (my BOTW) - PaddyPower way out front with 2.44. Wow i thought. Clicked it - PaddyPower actual odds 2.09.

Stick with Valuechecker where poss i say.
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Steve

nors · Posted: Sat Aug 23, 2008 9:04 am Post subject:

I always think the value bets on Valuechecker are worth investigating, can often jog your mind or stop you in your tracks when you were of one opinion and the stats say something else.

http://www.valuechecker.co.uk/selection/value_bets.php

fianna · Posted: Sat Aug 23, 2008 9:22 am Post subject:

Yeah , I also had the same problem looking for the best odds for Blackburn v Hull on Oddschecker, the selection i was looking for was blackburn -0.25 AH, Oddschecker had BetDaq @ 1.75, but when i went to the site it was nowhere to be seen.

Valuechecker all the way Win

gecko6 · At Stud Read My Blog! Joined: 20 Oct 2006 Posts: 4164

* quick update after wk 2 results (1 to go still)

tipster >> overall profit after 2 wks >> bank for wk 3

shanewire 400.00% £1,100.00

murph1984 90.00% £480.00

thatsadonkey 77.50% £455.00

kankeano 67.50% £435.00
online trader 58.75% £417.50
fairfranco 54.45% £408.90
dorrian3 50.00% £400.00
tonyoni 30.77% £361.54
dmachine 25.00% £350.00
neilthebeaver 25.00% £350.00
murt 16.50% £333.33
sweetFOS 0.00% £300.00
ipoh 0.00% £300.00
thetitan 0.00% £300.00

afonso_alves -7.00% £286.00
betking -8.50% £283.00
bigmoose -12.80% £274.40
fianna -22.50% £255.00
daddycool -4.17% £250.00
foxchapel -50.00% £200.00
matman86 -50.00% £200.00
john mac -62.50% £175.00
gecko6 -65.00% £170.00
hindsight -70.00% £160.00
gerryatric -12.50% £150.00
bmirbkir -80.00% £140.00
tipstonga -100.00% £100.00
nors -100.00% £100.00
eezzee -100.00% £100.00
harry pabla -100.00% £100.00
jaydubs -100.00% £100.00
deco121 -100.00% £100.00
robbie08 -100.00% £100.00

* trust this is correct but pls let me know if not...

SHANEWIRE with a superb hit in wk 2 doing great...plenty of others up against their bank... 12 tipsters are in overall profit

those who haven't tipped yet > pls note I'll include you for 3 wks then drop... 3 wks hols is the max over the season ideally..

cheers folks

Win

bigmoose · Posted: Mon Aug 25, 2008 10:36 pm Post subject:

nice one gecko. keep up the good work. Most definitely appreciated.

Lots of losers this week! Crying or Very sad

Very disappointed to find myself the same colour as the -80%+ boys! Laughing

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Steve

thatsa donkey · Classic Winner Joined: 06 Jul 2005 Posts: 850

fugga fugga fugga. posted last weeks bet in the wrong thread.

Donkey. Embarassed

gecko6 · At Stud Read My Blog! Joined: 20 Oct 2006 Posts: 4164

update after 2 weeks >

weeks > 2
tipsters > 33
bank > £6,600
staked > £5,047.50
return > £4,381.84
profit > -£665.66
% profit > -13.19%
avg stake > £76.48
avg return > £66.39
avg profit > -£10.09

* slightly skewed figs as we have a few people who have missed a wk..but interesting to see stakes are quite sensible... unfortunately we are showing a combined loss but it's early days and the matches have been particularly tricky so far!

* average odds taken so far have been 2.2 so above evens which is impressive...

Win

John Mac · Posted: Wed Aug 27, 2008 11:53 pm Post subject:

Great reading Gecko - you really are a stats anorak Laughing

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AVFC - PROUD HISTORY, BRIGHT FUTURE

Luck doesn't exist - it's opportunities meeting preparation.